Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Wall Street faced a sharp sell-off once again, ending a brief respite that followed the reopening of the U.S. government. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, combined with anticipation of upcoming economic data, spurred traders to shed riskier assets, ranging from tech stocks to cryptocurrencies. With the optimism surrounding the government shutdown’s resolution already baked into the market, concerns over lofty valuations reemerged. This led to a notable pullback in high-flying tech stocks, while some analysts noted a shift toward more defensive sectors. The S&P 500 experienced its third drop of over 1% in just two weeks, a stark contrast to the previous three months, during which such declines happened only once. President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, though it may take time for federal agencies to fully resume normal operations. Notably, the upcoming October jobs report will not include the unemployment rate, according to U.S. Chief Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett in an interview with Fox News’ America’s Newsroom. As for the Federal Reserve, traders are split on whether the central bank will cut interest rates in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously stated that another rate reduction is “not a foregone conclusion”, emphasising that future decisions will depend on incoming data. However, some investors are concerned that missing economic data due to the shutdown could bolster arguments for maintaining current policy. Adding to the mix, Fed officials shared differing views in separate comments. The Fed’s Musalem urged caution given inflation remains above target, while the Fed’s Hammack suggested monetary policy should stay “somewhat restrictive”. On the other hand, the Fed’s Kashkari revealed he opposed the last rate cut and remains undecided about December’s decision.
Asian shares fell sharply on Friday, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropping 1.6%. This decline followed Wall Street's abrupt end to a four-day winning streak, as U.S. markets experienced their steepest single-day drop since April's tariff-related turmoil. Japan's Nikkei index slid 2%, while Australia's resource-heavy stocks lost 1.4%. South Korean markets saw a steep plunge of up to 3.6%, with losses intensifying throughout the day. In China, stocks dipped 0.9% after monthly activity data revealed slower-than-expected growth in October’s industrial production and retail sales. The disappointing figures quickly erased a brief rally in equity markets. October credit growth in China was notably weak, with total aggregate financing reaching RMB30.9trn from Jan-Oct, up from RMB27.1trn last year, but the monthly flow was disappointing. Credit growth for October was RMB815bn, the lowest since 2015. RMB loans contracted by -RMB20.1bn m/m, and government bond issuance slowed sharply to RMB489.3bn, the weakest since April ’24. Household borrowing continued to decline amid housing market struggles, while corporate lending remained flat, skewed towards SOEs. Despite slower credit growth, debt is rising faster than the economy, now at 314% of GDP (up from 301% last year). Most of this increase stems from government bond issuance, highlighting growing imbalances and reliance on exports.
Bitcoin has plunged further below 100K as the crypto benchmark trades in bear market territory, impacted by a new wave of risk aversion and a downturn in tech stocks that has revived concerns on Wall Street. The cryptocurrency dropped by as much as 3.9%, deepening a decline that has erased over $450 billion in value since early October. Previously reliable support sources—such as major investment funds, ETF investors, and corporate treasuries—have retreated, taking away a crucial support pillar for this year's rally and initiating a fresh period of market vulnerability.
Overnight Headlines
Sluggish UK Economy Puts Reeves, BoE Under Pressure Before Budget
UK PM Starmer, Chancellor Reeves Drop Plan To Raise Income Tax Rates
China’s Economy Falters With Growth Hurt By Investment Slump
Bitcoin Sinks Deeper Below $100,000 As Bear Market Grips Crypto
Fed’s Kashkari Did Not Support Oct Rate Cut, Undecided On Dec
BoC Restarts Treasury Bill Purchases Amid Financial System Strains
Germany Rethinks China Policy As Trade Squeeze Exposes Vulnerabilities
Trump Lifts More Oil Drilling Curbs On Millions Of Arctic Acres
Goldman Follows IEA With Revised Bullish Outlook On Oil Demand
Siemens Energy Boosts Outlook On Turbine, Data Center Demand
Applied Materials Sales Decline, With Rebound Predicted For 2026
Disney Shares Slump As Sales At Film And TV Units Slide
Paramount, Comcast, Netflix Bid For Warner As Deadline Approaches
Oracle Hit Hard In Tech Sell-Off Over Huge AI Bet
South Korea Says Fact Sheet With US On Trade, Security Finalised
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1600-10 (1BLN), 1.1625 (1.3BLN), 1.1650 (327M), 1.1700 (731M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9355 (477M). EUR/GBP:0.8850 (360M)
AUD/USD: 0.6500-10 (1BLN), 0.6540 (345M), 0.6570 (468M), 0.6600 (470M)
AUD/NZD: 1.1500 (680M)
USD/CAD: 1.4015 (313M), 1.4020-30 (2.1BLN), 1.4035 (276M)
USD/JPY: 153.80 (250M), 155.00 (202M), 155.25-35 (282M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6805 Target 6860
Below 6798 Target 6675
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1595 Target 1.1683
Below 1.1583 Target 1.1483
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3211 Target 1.3314
Below 1.3159 Target 1.29
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 154.40 Target 156.35
Below 153.19 Target 151.37
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 4158 Target 4276
Below 4069 Target 3962
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 100.5k Target 104.9k
Below 101k Target 95.3k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!