Daily Market Outlook, April 28, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Oil extended its conflict-driven rally, with Brent up 1% above $109/bbl for a seventh straight gain and a three-week high, as markets await progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said it is reviewing Iran’s latest proposal but stressed that it must meet key red lines to resolve the eight-week conflict. The oil move kept broader risk appetite contained: Asian equities were broadly flat, with the MSCI Asia Pacific little changed, though tech remained a bright spot as South Korea rose 1% and overtook the UK as the world’s eighth-largest equity market.

The yen firmed after the BOJ held rates in a 6-3 split vote. This hawkish hold kept rates unchanged, but three of the nine board members reportedly favoured a hike, a split that sharpened market conviction that the next move is still higher. The yen strengthened after the decision as investors interpreted the vote as a signal that policy normalisation remains live. Markets characterised the decision as yen-supportive, while reports noted that the BOJ also raised its inflation assessment, reinforcing the view that today’s hold was tactical rather than dovish. The decision kicks off a packed central-bank week, with the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOC also due, collectively setting policy for nearly half the global economy. While no major rate moves are expected, the market focus is on whether Powell, Lagarde and peers acknowledge the renewed inflation threat from higher energy prices — a key risk to equities already trading with limited breadth and heavy event risk ahead.

European stock futures are once again teetering around the neutral mark ahead of Tuesday's market opening, as there are no significant updates concerning the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A U.S. official has revealed that President Trump is dissatisfied with Iran's recent proposal aimed at resolving the war, which may temper expectations for a swift conclusion to the two-month-long strife. Nevertheless, the ceasefire remains intact for now. European equity investors are taking a cautious stance as they await further developments. The EuroSTOXX 50 futures have nudged up by less than 0.1%, while the DAX, CAC, and FTSE futures are hovering close to flat. In Japan, the Bank of Japan opted to maintain its interest rates, aligning with market predictions, though three members of its nine-person rate-setting committee suggested a potential hike in borrowing costs. This news has contributed to a more than 1% decline in Japan's Nikkei index. Additionally, Novartis is likely to attract attention at the market open after reporting first-quarter core operating profits that fell short of analysts' expectations.

Domestically, the UK’s April BRC shop price index has yet to show meaningful pass-through from the energy shock, with inflation easing 0.2ppts to 1.0% y/y. Beneath the headline, however, the composition matters: non-food disinflation appears to be driven by competitive pressure and weak consumer confidence, while food prices remain more exposed to higher energy, transport and input costs. The near-term outlook is benign, but there is a risk of lagged pass-through effects, especially if elevated oil and gas prices persist into the summer. Separately, the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee’s report on “fortifying the fiscal framework” lands as a pointed warning on fiscal credibility. Its key recommendation — that the government should operate with substantially larger fiscal buffers — directly challenges the recent practice of running fiscal rules with very thin headroom. For markets, the message is clear: gilt investors are likely to remain sensitive to any fiscal event that relies on optimistic growth assumptions, deferred tightening or minimal margin for error.

Overnight Headlines

• BoJs ‘Hawkish Hold’ Strengthens Yen, Strategists Say

• Trump Unhappy With Iranian Proposal, US Official Says

• Iran's FM Araghchi Lands In Pakistan Again After Russia Talks

• Iran’s Unused Oil Storage Shrinks To 22 Days Or Less, Kpler Says

• Oil Steadies As US Weighs Iran Proposal With Hormuz Still Shut

• US Yields Climb As Trump Says Peace Can Be Negotiated Over Phone

• EU Tells Google To Open Android To AI Rivals

• OpenAI Misses Its Own User And Sales Goals, WSJ Reports

• China Blocks Meta’s $2B Purchase Of AI Group Manus

• Nissan Shares Climb After Forecasting Profit Instead Of Loss

• Samsung SDI Posts Smaller-Than-Expected Loss, Sending Shares Up

• Elliott Raises Japan Wagers With 5% Stake In Nippon Express

• German Energy Giant E.ON Nears £600M Deal To Buy UK Supplier Ovo

• Nucor First-Quarter Profit Rises, Boosted By Steel Mills Business

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.1750 (EU3.51b), 1.1700 (EU2.79b), 1.1600 (EU2.65b)

• AUD/USD: 0.7200 (AUD1.38b), 0.7125 (AUD1b), 0.6750 (AUD725.8m)

• USD/JPY: 152.00 ($1.18b)

• USD/BRL: 5.9200 ($439.2m), 5.0000 ($335m), 5.3625 ($302.1m)

• USD/CNY: 6.7000 ($976m), 6.7600 ($600m), 6.8000 ($394m)

• USD/MXN: 26.44 ($3.87b), 31.73 ($1.93b), 21.15 ($1.93b)

• GBP/USD: 1.3300 (GBP799.5m), 1.3500 (GBP756.3m), 1.3675 (GBP675.3m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3510 ($304m)

• NZD/USD: 0.5770 (NZD523.1m)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8460 (EU617m), 0.8850 (EU422.6m)

• USD/KRW: 1485.00 ($495.2m), 1462.50 ($410m)

CFTC Positions as of April 24, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators cut their CME S&P 500 net short by 12,644 contracts, bringing it to 402,253.

• Equity fund managers increased their CME S&P 500 net long by 9,443 contracts to 1,020,550.

• Speculators reduced their CBOT U.S. 5-year Treasury futures net short by 92,995 contracts to 1,532,750.

• Speculators also trimmed their CBOT U.S. 10-year Treasury futures net short by 9,394 contracts to 790,971.

• Meanwhile, speculators expanded their CBOT U.S. 2-year Treasury futures net short by 39,547 contracts to 1,743,353.

• Their CBOT U.S. UltraBond Treasury futures net short was lowered by 536 contracts to 300,287.

• At the same time, speculators raised their CBOT U.S. Treasury bond futures net short by 9,670 contracts to 83,786.

• Bitcoin showed a net long position of 2,071 contracts.

• The Swiss franc recorded a net short of 33,273 contracts.

• The British pound remained net short at 52,039 contracts.

• The euro posted a net long position of 41,324 contracts.

• The Japanese yen showed a net short position of 94,460 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7050 Target 7300

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 98 Target 99

• Below 97.80 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1760 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1750 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k